Lions and Tigers and Bears, OH MY!

lions and tigars and bears

There are the 3 top cards in poker that prevail in anyone’s 2 hold cards.
Everyone plays AcesKings, and Queenssome with almost any other card. 
The “Momma Bear or Queen” will be the most fierce card in the deck as most players are thinking Ace or King. Even Q7 or Q8 (unsuited) is a great hand to some players. To that extent, one of these 3 cards will hit the board about 50% of the time.
If you have one of them that end up hitting the board, you need to be aware of the ones you don’t have. If you don’t have one, odds are better than 50%, someone does. Having 2 of them, AK, AQ, KQ, gives you the opportunity to gamble pre-flop. They are still just drawing cards, so don’t go crazy, but most payers are not likely to throw them away pre-flop, regardless of the bets and raises.

Pre-Flop:
An AceKing, or Queen will hit the flop about 50% of the time, so if it didn’t show up, there’s a good chance it will by the river. If you have the Queen and a good kicker and it hits the flop, you need to bet it to eliminate those who are waiting for their Ace or King to hit. The King is not so bad because you can usually chase it away, but people just love to hold on their Ace, especially if their other card already hit the flop.

After the flop:
Now we are down to betting into 4th street, or betting after the flop, so we are talking outs vs outs. You have one of the top 3 cards and are still in the hand because the betting has been low or everyone is just checking and waiting for their card. You have 3 outs or about 14% to hit your card vs 28% that one of the others will hit. 2 to 1 against you. If you are in the lead, you need to at least make a value bet, but that gives 3 to one odds, so you will likely be called. Bet the pot and give 2 to one, and you may also be called. You need to chase them away with about 1 and a half times the pot to 2 times the pot to put some pressure on them. If you have AK, AQ, KQ and one hits, your odds are reversed, but 3:1 odds are the minimum you are looking at. In order to play any of these, you need a deep stack or you are just gambling.

4th Street (Turn)
Betting into Fifth street, the odds are worse. 12:1 for you and only 6:1 for the others. Holding an Ace is optimal and preferred to holding the King or Queen. Even holding KQ and waiting for one to fall on the river is a big gamble, even with 8:1 odds to hit the King or Queen.

5th Street (the River)
You have what you have. Bet into weakness or check and determine what either of you have to lose.

I NEVER BLUFF

Mr Lucky Poker
Mr Lucky Poker
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The Only Good Hand Was the Last Hand – FOLD EQUITY

Against multiple players, fold equity rarely comes into play.

Fold Equity

http://www.exceptionalpoker.com/?p=1043

 “It is the equity a player can expect to gain due to the opponent folding to his or her bets.”

Folding?

It depends as much on the type of table you are at as it does the type of player you are playing, maybe more.

Most comments about any type of play center around a specific player and tends to be focused on becoming heads up after the flop, if not during the flop.

That only happens about 30%-40% of the time live and almost nonexistent on-line. Aggressiveness is the only game in town when paying on-line, but in a live cash game, aggression is sometimes fleeting, most times it’s random to intermittent.

If you’re at an aggressive table, there may be no real fold equity, because you are usually up against 2 to 3 villains. If you don’t really know how much they have in their pocket, which you don’t, you can’t really tell how aggressive they are going to be. If you have watched the table, which you should have before sitting down, you can tell who is the Loose Aggressive player and who is the Selective Aggressive player. Their fold equity is quite a bit different from the passive player that sits in-between them.

Essentially, fold equity is the extra amount of equity you gain when you factor in how likely your opponent is to fold. Working out the correct amount of fold equity relies heavily on your ability to read an opponent. In other words, you need to be fairly certain of your chances to get an opponent to fold. But how about 2 villains or even 3?

The formulas you read about in the most popular strategy sites are only good for a head-to-head battle.

Fold Equity decisions

With multiple opponents, you have to rely on multiple reads and your initial threat assessment for each villain.

A final word of warning
When playing against really loose aggressive players, your fold equity will likely be close to zero. This is also the case against players with really short stacks (very few chips) in a cash/ring game, as well as in tournaments. Short-stacked players are less likely to fold, as they need to take more risks.

I NEVER BLUFF

Mr Lucky Poker
Mr Lucky Poker